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Fullertron’s look at the present and future condition of each of the Dallas area’s 4 major sports teams along with the North Texas Men’s Basketball and Football teams.  Today he takes a look at the Texas Rangers.

Ever since I can remember my life has revolved around baseball.  Some of my fondest childhood memories revolve around the sport that I grew up loving.  I loved playing the game, learning about the game, and going to the Ballpark to watch games up close.  Growing up in the North Texas area the Rangers were my team.  I grew up on Juan Gonzalez, Dean Palmer, and Rick Helling.  Those were the wonder years for Rangers baseball.  The best Rangers baseball I had ever seen was before my age had eclipsed double digits.  I watched Alex Rodriguez win the MVP, Hank Blalock destroy an Eric Gagne pitch to win the All-Star Game in 2003, and a throw away player in a trade with the Blue Jays develop into the leader of this team.  This woeful franchise has seen the light and now it is time to see if they will turn the corner to become a respectable franchise.

The anticipation and excitement around this Rangers team is at levels that I have never before seen.  Last year there was so much to be enthusiastic about and this enthusiasm has translated to expectations.  While walking around campus I see a startling amount of Rangers hats (mostly after Christmas time, the bandwagon has made its way to Arlington) and I think to myself, “When did it become cool to be a Rangers fan?”  Yes, this team won 86 games last year.  Yes, this team probably overachieved.  Yes, many of the young talent could go through a sophomore slump their second time through the league.  Yes, the Angels are no longer the force they used to be in the AL West.

Recently Deadspin made a post discussing the ridiculousness of the expectations within the Rangers clubhouse.  Josh Hamilton predicted 96 wins.  Writers believe that Nelson Cruz can have a 30-30 season.  Julio Borbon claims he will be disappointed if he doesn’t steal 50 bases.  The response from Deadspin was that the addition of Rich Harden and Chris Ray (they forgot Darren Oliver!) would translate to 96 wins?

When the question is posed that way then no it wont.  In all probability Rich Harden wont be able to stay healthy the whole season and Chris Ray has not been the same after he had surgery.  Those two players are not what will account for the rise in the Rangers win totals, though I do believe Harden will be dominant as long as he is healthy.  The real potential lies in the young rookies who came up and performed last year.  Improvements from players like Holland, Andrus, Hunter, Borbon, and Feliz.  96 wins is probably too steep, even in my overreacting state of mind considering the strength of this division, but I don’t think it is inconceivable for this team to win 90 games.  Last year Nelson Cruz hit more than 30 HRs and stole 20 bases so the main issue with Cruz reaching 30-30 is steals.  Last year Cruz hit high in the lineup, usually batting clean up or fifth in the order.  This year Ron Washington is projected Cruz to hit 7th in the order as long as Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero remain healthy.  Hitting lower in the order will allow Cruz to get the green light to run more often, as he will not be taking the bat out of a competent hitter’s hands.  As for Julio Borbon 50 steals is definitely within his reach.  Borbon stole 19 bases in 46 games last year.  If you translate those numbers out over a 162 game season (I know he wont play in all 162, this is just for the sake of argument) he will steal about 60 bases this year.  So maybe the Rangers are not as crazy as the rest of the league might think.  On to the breakdowns.

Fullertron’s Starting Lineup:

1. CF Borbon

2. 3B Young

3. LF Hamilton

4. DH Guerrero

5. 2B Kinsler

6. 1B Davis

7. RF Cruz

8. C Salty (if healthy)

9. SS Andrus

I don’t have very much difference from the projected lineup from Wash.  Borbon played well enough last year to earn a lead off spot which is a great improvement over Kinsler.  The big head turner here is Cruz hitting in the seven hole below Chris Davis.  The reason for this is to break up the right handed hitters in the middle of the order.  While I do not expect Davis to be as abysmal this year than at the beginning of last I’m not expecting a return to late 2008 call-up form.  After returning from his demotion Davis hit much better, but the main contribution he brings to this team is his defense.  Hamilton’s move to the corner outfield positions will place less stress on his body so, hopefully, he can remain healthy throughout the duration of the season.

Fullertron’s Rotation and Bullpen:

1. RHP Harden

2. RHP Feldman

3. RHP Hunter

4. LHP Holland

5. RHP Feliz

Long Relief: LHP Oliver, RHP Nippert

Set Up: LHP Wilson, RHP Ray

Closer: RHP Fransisco

The main competition going into this Spring Training will be the fight for the 5th spot in the rotation.  I would love to see Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation as I think the only way to learn how to pitch is to pitch (more on him later).

Scott Feldman moved from the bullpen last year to give the Rangers the pitching they needed and it will be interesting to see if his success continues later this year (more on him too).

Rich Harden was the big splash of a signing for the Rangers this year.  When Harden is healthy he is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.  A powerful arm known for blowing away hitters should not lose productivity based on pitching in a hitter’s park, of course this is what we said about Chan Ho Park (side note: I received a shirt that had Chan Ho Park on it for attending an interleague game against the Braves.  Park gave up about 13 runs in two innings that afternoon).

Derek Holland was downright dominant at times last season (a game against the Giants comes to mind) and at other times he wasn’t (games against teams with Major League offenses come to mind).  Developing consistency will be the key to Holland getting and keeping his role.

Whenever the Rangers had a must win game last season Tommy Hunter seemed to always be on the mound, and he always seemed to come through.  Tommy earned his nickname “Big Game” by using his control, pitching intelligence, and nasty breaking ball to confuse hitters.  Now that teams have tape on Hunter it will be interesting to see if he can continue pitching well.  Last season Big Game wore down near the end of the year, which he attributed to never playing baseball that far into the year.  Hunter’s endurance will be tested both mentally and physically this season as the Rangers begin their quest for the pennant.

As previously stated the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation will be the focus of this spring.  Many writers have LHP Colby Lewis penciled in to the 3 spot in the Rangers rotation, but I am not sold.  Lewis, a former Ranger, spent some time overseas where he pitched fairly well.  I will need to see Lewis in action this Spring Training before I put him into my projected rotation.  The main advantage of Lewis is that he will give the Rangers a left handed arm in the rotation if Derek Holland fails to make the rotation.  Another interesting candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation is LHP CJ Wilson.  Wilson, originally a starter, has been bounced around the bullpen spending some time as closer, but most recently filling the role of set up man.  I tweeted CJ about his goals for the season and he responded by saying:

So it would appear that CJ, or what I call him Ceej (CJ is too long), has his eyes set on that last spot in the rotation.  Wilson also claims to have been deemed the pitcher in the best shape by the Rangers training staff giving him a slight advantage ahead of the rest of the group.

Another name to watch is Eric Hurley.  He was injured last year, but he played very well for the Rangers in 2008.  He is my nominee for the Ranger’s James K. Polk Darkhorse of the Year.

Key Player: Ian Kinsler

Kinsler had an odd year last year.  His defense was much improved, he hit 31 HRs and stole 31 bases.  So why did I never feel confident when he was coming to the plate?  Kinsler’s aptitude for swinging on the first pitch really hurt the team last year, especially being the teams lead off hitter.  I have no statistical data to back this up, but I would venture to say Kinsler faced the least pitches per plate appearance by any lead off hitter in the league.  Too many games began with Kinsler hitting a soft fly ball or popping out to the second baseman.  Kinsler’s ground ball to fly ball rate last year was .58 which was good enough for the league low.  The league average was 1.22.  Yes, it is great to see someone who goes up to the plate and hacks like every at bat he has will be his last.  Yes, Kinsler had great games, he did hit for the cycle, and his stats were among the best of any second baseman in the league, but his average really hurt the team.  Looking back on 2009 Kinsler realizes that he needs to cut down on the fly balls, which he hit the most of in the league at 257, and stop trying to do too much at the plate.  Moving down in the order will help Kinsler and the team by reducing the pressure for Kinsler to have great at bats.  If Kinsler stays healthy, which is an issue considering he has missed 53 games the last 2 years due to injury, and works with hitting coach Clint Hurdle he will be the force that drives this team to the playoffs.

Key Pitcher: Scott Feldman

Scott started last year out of the long relief position in the bullpen.  When Kris Benson went down with an injury Feldman did not take his opportunity for granted.  Scooter went 17-8 last year and even though Kevin Millwood was the leader of the staff Feldman was the “ace.”  Feldman will have to toe the rubber and do it again to prove the skeptics wrong.  With the departure of Millwood, Feldman will have to pitch as well as he ever has.  The addition of Harden keeps Feldman out of the ace spot, but if Harden goes down Scott will have to pick up the slack.  Feldman, like Hunter, pitches craftily rather than over powering hitters.  All of Feldman’s pitches have great movement on them, making it very difficult to make solid contact.  Throughout last year Scooter got a lot of weak ground ball outs thanks to the great deal of motion that he has on all of his pitches.  The change in Feldman’s career took place when he changed his delivery to the 3/4 arm slot.  This allowed for his pitches to sneak up on hitters, as they are not used to his rare delivery.  Feldman tends to keep the ball on the ground, he had a 1.43 ground ball to fly ball ratio in 2009, which is helpful when pitching in Arlington.  Feldman, a quiet person in the clubhouse, will lead this group of young pitchers by example and must pitch comparably to last year if the Rangers are to have a shot at the AL West title.

Future Looks Bright For: Neftali Feliz

After his August call up no one in the league pitched better than Neftali Feliz.  The hard throwing right hander made Major Leaguers look silly with his hard fastball, he was clocked at 101 mph in his big league debut, and sharp breaking curve.  Feliz posted an absolutely riDONKulous 11.32 strikeouts per nine innings in his short stint in pro ball and definitely caught the attention of people around the league.  This guy is an ace in the making, the only question is how do the Rangers get him there?  Some have suggested implementing the Joba Rules that worked out so well for Joba Chamberlain (he is expected to be moved back to the bullpen this year).  These rules included strict pitch counts, pitching every 5 days, and other rules to reduce the wear and tear on a young arm.  Others suggest a Johan Santana approach (which worked pretty well) where the pitcher is brought along in the bullpen until they are ready to take over the role of a starting pitcher.  Another suggestion, which I am in favor of, is the Tim Lincecum approach.  This approach is that the only way kids will learn how to pitch is to pitch.  Lincecum showed his stuff to the Giants and they gave him a starting spot.  This starting spot led to a couple of Cy Young awards in two years.  Though immediate results of that magnitude should not be expected from Feliz right away he will be a large factor in this team for the years to come.  If Feliz misses out on the rotation coming out of Spring the Rangers, specifically Nolan Ryan who spent a lot of time with Feliz last year, would not want to juggle him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation.  Instead expect players like Dustin Nippert to get spot starts in an emergency.

Person I Owe An Apology To: Jon Daniels

This kills me.  Jon I’m sorry for the terrible things that I have said about you in the past (and trust me they were terrible).  There is no denying you made some bonehead moves when you first came aboard the USS Rangers (somehow I feel shafted that Alex Rodriguez somehow turned into Brad Wilkerson), but you have redeemed yourself.  Great moves like Teixeria (I did that without looking it up) for Andrus, Feliz, Harrison, and Salty are paying off in a big way.  You may be doing some right after all.

The David Dellucci Breakout Player of the Year Award: Julio Borbon

Since 2005, when David Dellucci came out of nowhere to mash 29 homers the Rangers have had a player explode onto the scene with no prior warning.  Let’s take a look back at some of the past winners:

2006: Gary Matthews Jr.

2007: Marlon Byrd

2008: Josh Hamilton

2009: Nelson Cruz

This year I think the DDBPOTY will be Julio Borbon.  I already mentioned the ridiculous amount of steals he was on pace for last season and I think he has ridiculous basestealer’s speed (you know the kind where everyone in the park knows you are going to steal and you swipe the bag anyway).  He also provides the Rangers with a good on base percentage at the top of the order.  The most beneficial thing Borbon will provide will be in the SAC section of the box score, not the sexy statistics like home runs or RBIs.  Borbon was bunting early and often while in the big leagues and I don’t see him becoming a selfish hitter anytime soon.

X-Factor: Clint Hurdle

New hitting coach Clint Hurdle will have big shoes to fill after Rudy Jaramillo parted ways with the Rangers this offseason.  Hurdle will have his hands full as the Rangers swung and missed 2,633 times last year, the most in the majors.  At times I found the Rangers incredibly hard to watch because Michael Young was the only player on the team capable of working a count.  With a focus on putting together better at-bats the Rangers can increase their productivity exponentially depending on how they respond to Hurdle.

Team to Beat: Seattle Mariners

Even though this division has been dominated by the Angels in recent years the Mariners made strides this offseason to contend for the AL West.  The obvious big addition was Cliff Lee, by adding him to a rotation already featuring Felix Hernandez giving the Mariners the best one-two starter combination in the league.  Also the addition of Chone Figgins will help with speed and defense.  The additions make the Mariners my team to beat in the AL West.

Prediction:

Josh Hamilton said 96 wins.  Nolan Ryan is predicting 92.  Though I would not be surprised if the Rangers reach those numbers I am going to try to keep my expectations low due to being in the most competitive division in baseball (note that I did not say best Sawx fans). So to the predictions:

Mariners 94-68

Rangers 90-72 (With the Rangers ending up 3 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card)

Angels 89-73

Athletics 72-90

Future of the Team: Sky is the Limit

This team as a good mix of good veteran influences (Michael Young, Scott Feldman, and the like) and talented young players (Borbon, Andrus, Holland, Feliz).  If this team doesn’t make the playoffs this year I am confident that they will find themselves in the playoffs and in contention for the American League for years to come.  Hopefully they can win a playoff series for the first time in team history within the next few years.

That being said I hope I’m wrong on this year’s prediction, but, as a Rangers fan you get used to saying this, there’s always next year.

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